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Walking Back the Chalabi
Cat
. . . . . .
By Daniel Pipes
www.DanielPipes.org
Editor's Note: Daniel Pipes,
director of the Middle
East Forum, is a member of the presidentially-appointed board of the
U.S. Institute of Peace and a prize-winning columnist for the New York
Sun and The Jerusalem Post. His most recent book, Miniatures:
Views of Islamic and Middle Eastern Politics (Transaction
Publishers), is available from the Triumph
PC ONLINE Bookshop.
 The Iranian government learned recently that American intelligence has deciphered its codes and can read its mail. This is a blow to U.S. interests, for it means losing the ability to access the enemy’s confidential communications, with all the advantages that offers.
Who is to blame for this development?
Ahmad Chalabi – the Iraqi politician whom I have known, worked with, supported, and admired since 1991 – has for the past month sat in the hot seat, accused by unnamed intelligence officials of informing the Iranian regime that its codes had been cracked.
Chalabi denies the accusation, saying that he and his organization, the Iraqi National Congress, have not received “any classified information” from the U.S. government. For what it is worth, the Iranians also deny that Chalabi told them about U.S. code breaking.
Thinking this through logically, I conclude that Chalabi is not responsible for the damage to U.S. interests; rather, the blame falls on his opponents in the Central Intelligence Agency and State Department. Here is my logic, a form of “walking back the cat” (spook-speak, defined by William Safire as applying “what is now known to the actions and events of a previous time”).
To begin with, I make three assumptions: First, that the reaction in Washington (which includes possible criminal prosecutions) bespeaks sincerity and confirms that U.S. cryptographers did indeed crack the Iranian codes. Second, that Tehran interprets the U.S. reaction as proof that its codes were cracked. Third, that it is taking the necessary steps to regain secrecy.
One possibility is that Chalabi told the Iranians nothing. In which case, the allegation that he did so originated elsewhere:
- Perhaps State or the CIA made it up. (Plausible: Time magazine has documented how since April, the White House has been attempting to marginalize Chalabi.)
- Or the Iranians floated it to check if their codes were broken. (Plausible: It would explain why they used that same code to tell about the code break.)
- Or Chalabi did tell them that Washington had cracked the code. In which case:
- Perhaps he made this up and just happened to be right. (Plausible: Chalabi reportedly took steps in 1995 to trick the Iranians.)
- Or he thought he was providing disinformation but actually was telling the truth. (Unlikely: Too convoluted.)
- Or he knowingly divulged classified information. (Unlikely: Why should the Americans give Chalabi, a British subject known to be in close contact with the Iranian regime, a crown jewel of U.S. state secrets?)
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